Abstract: Salt, a vital commodity in our daily life both as a household consumption and industrial need, is a very interesting subject to study considering that until now, national demand is still can not be fully supplied by domestic production. Year 1997 data shows that only 70% of national demand can be supplied by national production in which 52% is farmers production and 18% produced by PT Garam. The other 30% of demand are supplied by imported salt. This is an ironical situation as national demand grows around 3% yearly for the last five year, the percentage of national production share at the same time decrease from 80% on 1998 to 75% in 1999. This situation in turn causes an increasing demand for imported salt. Many methods can be used to analyze this phenomenon, one of them is econometric. With all its advantages, econometric method is not suitable in describing a dynamic situation. This research will use dynamic sistem methodology to approach the problem holistically so several policy scenarios can be obtained. The result shows that in order to increase national production, land intensification is not enough but must also be accompanied by land extension. As with imported salt, on one hand it protect the customer as it serve as a price control but on the other hand it will destroy local salt producers as their high production can not compete with imported salt.

Key words: sistem, model, simulation, scenario, causatic, validation, intensification, land extension

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